Canada Demographic Surge Navigating Population Growth and Urban Challenges
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In a recent projection by Statistics Canada, Canada’s population is expected to surge to 63 million by 2073, up from the current 40.1 million in 2023. This growth is primarily driven by immigration, as low birth rates and an aging population limit natural increase. The report highlights significant demographic shifts since 2022, including accelerated population growth due to immigration and record-low fertility rates. Despite concerns about aging and declining life expectancy, migration remains pivotal in shaping Canada's future population dynamics.
Provincial variations in population distribution are anticipated, with British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan expected to increase their share of Canada’s population by 2048, while provinces like New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Quebec may see a relative decline. Some regions, under the low-growth scenario, could experience population decreases by 2048, underscoring uneven demographic pressures across the country. Ontario and Quebec are projected to remain the most populous provinces, fueled by urban migration, particularly to cities like Toronto grappling with severe housing shortages and soaring costs.
The housing market reflects these demographic pressures, with experts attributing rising home prices to population growth outpacing housing supply. Despite calls for increased construction, bureaucratic hurdles and escalating development costs continue to hinder adequate housing production, exacerbating affordability challenges. As Canada’s population surpasses 41 million in early 2024, the urgent question persists: how will the nation accommodate future growth? This ongoing dilemma underscores the critical need for strategic urban planning and policy reforms to sustainably manage Canada’s evolving demographic landscape.
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