RBC Warns of a Volatile Housing Recovery as Canada’s Market Faces Uneven Path Ahead
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The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) forecasts a gradual recovery in Canadian home sales, aided by lower interest rates and price declines, yet it emphasises a “choppy” rebound rather than a smooth one. Home sales fell 1.7 % in September — the first drop since April — underscoring that the recovery won’t be linear. RBC acknowledges it isn’t providing a precise timeframe for when things will fully normalise.
RBC has shifted away from a definitive “soft landing” scenario due to rising risks, including economic uncertainty, weaknesses in the labour market, and affordability issues. In particular, its outlook signals that while the broader Canadian market may stabilise, the major cities of Toronto and Vancouver are expected to keep seeing price declines amid rising inventories and new housing completions. Meanwhile, regions like the Prairies, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada are flagged for relatively better outcomes thanks to tighter supply and steadier demand.
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